Nuclear power - a second look
This column originally appeared in the Williston Observer on March 24, 2011.
Recent events in Japan have forced me to reevaluate a position that I have extolled in this space several times over the past years: my support for nuclear power.
The earthquake and resulting tsunami that hit Japan on March 11 left in their wake, as of this writing, over 10,000 casualties and almost 13,000 missing. The earthquake itself was the seventh largest in recorded history, but even that dubious honor may be too low considering that scientists are still poring over data.
The tsunami swept away cars, trains, entire villages. Its effects were felt as far away as California, where it was predicted that millions of dollars in damage was done.
And right in the middle of both natural disasters are the sites of 14 of Japan's 55 nuclear reactors. The reactors at the Tokai and Onagawa sites did have issues and there were shutdowns, but the damage was relatively minor.
Some of the ten reactors at the Fukushima sites, however, were heavily damaged and are causing concern not only in Japan, but across the world.
There is an international nuclear event scale, which tries to put nuclear accidents into some perspective, according to the effects of the incident both on- an off-site. The Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania in 1979 is noted as a level 5 accident. An incident in the Soviet Union in 1957 is the only recorded level 6 accident. And the Chernobyl accident, in 1986, is the only one rated at the highest level, level 7.
Where the Fukushima incident will land on this scale is as yet unknown. Certainly it will be a level 5 incident and may already be a level 6. Everyone is hoping, and some are certain, that it will not become a level 7.
With the on-going issues at Vermont Yankee, and the shock of a minor earthquake, centered near Montreal, coming so soon after the Japanese disaster, many are wondering if what happened there could happen here. And even if reasonable people think that it cannot, can we take the risk? Should Vermont Yankee be completely shut down?
Should any nuclear power plant built along a major fault line, like several have been in California, be allowed to operate further? Should nuclear power be allowed to continue at all?
At times like these, with disaster so fresh in the media and the consequences still rubbing raw in our minds, it is reasonable to ask these questions. But because everything is so fresh, we must not jump to hasty conclusions.
Nuclear power, until we have more viable options in terms of safety, sustainability, low-impact, and absolute power output, is the best way for us to produce the energy that we need. The safety record of U.S. nuclear power plants is very good - issues at Vermont Yankee and incidents like Three Mile Island notwithstanding. The footprint of nuclear power plants is small compared to that needed to have a reasonable wind farm. The nuclear power plant generates electricity 24 hour hours a day, regardless of wind, tides, or sunlight, and without any carbon emissions. We cannot sustain our economy as we do now without them.
This is not to say that I accept nuclear without reservation. The issue of waste is a real and pressing one. I think we could solve much of it with reasonable and common sense recycling of nuclear material, but even that will not solve the waste issue completely.
Reactors the age of those at Vermont Yankee can continue to run safely past their design parameters. But even given that, the issues Yankee has had with leaks show that even if the reactor can continue, the infrastructure supporting it may not be able to.
President Obama has announced his administration's intention to continue to fund and support nuclear power, incorporating all the latest advances into new plants that are safer and more efficient than ever. Scientists continue to look for ways to make fission reactors more and more safe, always with an eye to the holy grail, the fusion reactor.
We must take lessons away from the Japanese disaster, build these lessons into new designs and close or retrofit old plants where necessary. What we cannot afford to do is abandon nuclear power completely - not now, and not in the foreseeable future.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Explaining Government Shutdowns
Explaining Government Shutdowns
This column originally appeared in the Williston Observer on March 10, 2011.
The federal government operates on a fiscal year of October 1 to September 30. What this means is that spending for 2011 started back in October. Or, rather, it should have.
Prior to 1976, the fiscal year began in July, which means that a new Congress had just over six months to negotiate and pass a new budget. In 1976, the fiscal year start was shifted to October, to give the Congress an extra three months to figure out the budget.
This brief lesson in the government's fiscal year is intended to help explain how the government came to the brink of shutdown last week, and why it is again at the brink next week.
The last Congress was unable to come to an agreement on the 2011 fiscal year (FY11) budget. Instead, from October through December, 2010, it passed continuing resolutions to duplicate the FY10 budget; in December the Congress did the same, pushing the funding out to March 4, 2011.
Since budget negotiations were at an impasse, and already at least three months late, Democrats were happy to have it done. Republicans, fully aware that they would be taking the reins of power in the House in January, 2011, were happy to know that in just a few months, the budget would be in their hands (the House, by way of explanation, is where all spending bills must originate, so the House has the first crack at them).
But March 4 loomed, and even with Republicans in control of the House (or perhaps especially because they were in control of the House), the two houses of Congress were unable to come to an agreement on a budget. Without one in place, a government shutdown was the only alternative.
There have only been a few government shutdowns in our history, all since 1981. Most were short. In 1981, a budget impasse between President Reagan and Congress lasted just a few hours - federal workers were sent home at lunchtime and came back to work the next morning.
The most severe shutdowns happened in 1995 and 1996. The shutdowns were the result of another impasse between branches of government, with the Republican-controlled Congress on one side and Democratic President Bill Clinton on the other. The shutdowns kept non-essential government workers at home; estimates released by the White House said that in real dollars, the 1995 shutdown cost $800 million - half because government employees, though home, were still paid; and the other half in taxes that went uncollected because IRS agents and investigators were unable to force collection.
Perhaps the bigger cost came in the form of inconvenience to Americans - federal parks were closed; hot-lines at the CDCP went unanswered; new Medicare and Social Security applications went unprocessed; toxic waste cleanup was halted; passport and visa applications were delayed; government-backed loans were delayed; and veterans' health care and services were delayed. Many pundits see the 1995 and 1996 shutdowns as one of the reasons that Clinton won reelection in the 1996 election.
Shutting down the government today would have the same sorts of effects on Americans. The most essential services, including the military, the TSA, those who process and issue Social Security checks, law enforcement personnel, health care personnel, and prison staff, would continue to work.
The rest? Furlough. As in 1995 and 1996, employees are not laid off, not fired, and don't go unpaid. They just don't go to work. In fact, there is a federal law that can be used to prosecute any furloughed employee for doing their job anyway, with up to $5000 in fines and two years' imprisonment.
The newest extension of the budget is good for only two weeks, meaning that as March 18 approaches, we again have a shutdown looming. Democrats are ready to deal, but Republicans, and especially the Tea Party wing, are looking to make waves.
If you're suddenly worried about FY12, you're right to worry. Every day that Congress wastes on the current fiscal year is one less to negotiate for the coming fiscal year. Though it may not be ideal, the Congress should extend the FY10 budget through the rest of FY11, and start work as soon as possible on the next fiscal year, which begins in less than seven months.
This column originally appeared in the Williston Observer on March 10, 2011.
The federal government operates on a fiscal year of October 1 to September 30. What this means is that spending for 2011 started back in October. Or, rather, it should have.
Prior to 1976, the fiscal year began in July, which means that a new Congress had just over six months to negotiate and pass a new budget. In 1976, the fiscal year start was shifted to October, to give the Congress an extra three months to figure out the budget.
This brief lesson in the government's fiscal year is intended to help explain how the government came to the brink of shutdown last week, and why it is again at the brink next week.
The last Congress was unable to come to an agreement on the 2011 fiscal year (FY11) budget. Instead, from October through December, 2010, it passed continuing resolutions to duplicate the FY10 budget; in December the Congress did the same, pushing the funding out to March 4, 2011.
Since budget negotiations were at an impasse, and already at least three months late, Democrats were happy to have it done. Republicans, fully aware that they would be taking the reins of power in the House in January, 2011, were happy to know that in just a few months, the budget would be in their hands (the House, by way of explanation, is where all spending bills must originate, so the House has the first crack at them).
But March 4 loomed, and even with Republicans in control of the House (or perhaps especially because they were in control of the House), the two houses of Congress were unable to come to an agreement on a budget. Without one in place, a government shutdown was the only alternative.
There have only been a few government shutdowns in our history, all since 1981. Most were short. In 1981, a budget impasse between President Reagan and Congress lasted just a few hours - federal workers were sent home at lunchtime and came back to work the next morning.
The most severe shutdowns happened in 1995 and 1996. The shutdowns were the result of another impasse between branches of government, with the Republican-controlled Congress on one side and Democratic President Bill Clinton on the other. The shutdowns kept non-essential government workers at home; estimates released by the White House said that in real dollars, the 1995 shutdown cost $800 million - half because government employees, though home, were still paid; and the other half in taxes that went uncollected because IRS agents and investigators were unable to force collection.
Perhaps the bigger cost came in the form of inconvenience to Americans - federal parks were closed; hot-lines at the CDCP went unanswered; new Medicare and Social Security applications went unprocessed; toxic waste cleanup was halted; passport and visa applications were delayed; government-backed loans were delayed; and veterans' health care and services were delayed. Many pundits see the 1995 and 1996 shutdowns as one of the reasons that Clinton won reelection in the 1996 election.
Shutting down the government today would have the same sorts of effects on Americans. The most essential services, including the military, the TSA, those who process and issue Social Security checks, law enforcement personnel, health care personnel, and prison staff, would continue to work.
The rest? Furlough. As in 1995 and 1996, employees are not laid off, not fired, and don't go unpaid. They just don't go to work. In fact, there is a federal law that can be used to prosecute any furloughed employee for doing their job anyway, with up to $5000 in fines and two years' imprisonment.
The newest extension of the budget is good for only two weeks, meaning that as March 18 approaches, we again have a shutdown looming. Democrats are ready to deal, but Republicans, and especially the Tea Party wing, are looking to make waves.
If you're suddenly worried about FY12, you're right to worry. Every day that Congress wastes on the current fiscal year is one less to negotiate for the coming fiscal year. Though it may not be ideal, the Congress should extend the FY10 budget through the rest of FY11, and start work as soon as possible on the next fiscal year, which begins in less than seven months.
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