This column originally appeared in the Williston Observer on December 4, 2008.
November - thanks tempered by fear
It was one heck of a November. There was simultaneously much to be thankful for and much to be fearful of.
In the former category, for me and the majority of the the rest of the voting population, the election of Barack Obama has let us all breathe a collective sigh of relief. Demonstrating restraint and respect, Obama continues to abide by the truism that "we have one president at a time," and hence refused to meet with G-20 leaders in Washington in mid-November.
At the same time, however, he is not wasting a single moment in trying to shore up the ailing American economy, choosing economic advisers whom he feels will best be able to guide him and us through the next financial year. Results have been mixed, with Wall Street responding favorably one day, but taking a hit the next.
To the relief of retail managers throughout the area, reports from the local media noted that retailers were pleased with sales over the past week, which bodes well for the season. As Chittenden County goes, so goes the nation?
With positive retail sales, and a $200 billion kick from the Treasury Secretary to get banks lending again, brokers in New York and around the world may have something positive to hang their hats on, and hence a reason to buy, or advise others to do so.
The price of oil, the bane of our existence a scant six months ago, has moved into bearable territory of late. That, of course, means bad news for the OPEC nations, and plans to cut production to raise prices have been discussed. Cheating, however, is rampant, which is good news for oil consumers.
Even with the price of gasoline down significantly - under $2! - we may have locked ourselves into a pattern of decreased usage, a trend which could help our pocketbooks, as well as our environment, in the long run.
The lower prices have also helped some of those who need it most. While the decision to drive can be helped by conservation - by good planning and combining destinations, for example - some uses of fuel have no viable alternative. I'm writing specifically of home heating.
There were those who feared actual fatalities from people freezing to death in their homes from want of fuel. The decline in the price of oil has meant, however, that heating oil is more affordable than it was feared it would be. Lower prices, paired with an increase in the federal subsidy, could allow the Vermont fuel assistance program to help over 7000 households instead of last year's 6100.
Locally, the month of November was a productive one for our schools. Between the book fair, parent conferences, and five Frameworks Committee meetings, good works were done for the children of our town.
Personally, I'm thankful for the advent of December, as that means the near end of holiday shopping. My wife is not one to put things off, and on November 30th, we were able to put the finishing touches on this season's economy-bolstering gift-buying.
The end of November also allowed me to put the finishing touches on a 50,000-word novel, for the third year in a row. I may write more about that some other time, but for now, suffice it to say that writing so much in a month makes a busy month even busier.
As for the latter category, those things to be fearful of, the economy is no where near back from the brink, and it seems the littlest thing could set it atumble.
The Big Three auto companies, in trying to scare Congress into fronting it billions of dollars, only seemed to manage to make people wary of buying from them.
Terrorism continues to plague the world - with India its latest victim, the threat of a regional nuclear war again raises its ugly head.
And in one way, it seems we are back in the 18th century, as the crews of ships in the Gulf of Aden and the rest of littoral Somalia, who want to do no more than deliver their cargoes and see their families again, have to contend with pirates.
In closing, and on the lighter side, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin continued to show up in the news, to the particular detriment of Alaskan turkeys. And worse, the Patriots may not be able to buy their way into the playoffs this year. Woe is New England.
Showing posts with label gas prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gas prices. Show all posts
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Bite the bullet on gas prices
This column originally appeared in the Williston Observer on June 19, 2008.
Bite the bullet on gas prices
Back in 1998, I stood at a gas station pumping gas at $1.11 per gallon and noticed that the station next door sold its gas for $1.01. I had a light bulb moment and created The GasMan website to track local gas prices.
Keeping such a thing up to date is a lot harder than it sounds, and five years later I closed the site down. The average price I was posting at the time of the site's demise was $1.65 per gallon. $1.11? $1.65? Those were the days.
Today, you can buy GPS units that provide directions to the closest, cheapest gas. Finding the cheapest gas in the area, though, might save you $70 or $80 per year. Is there anything that can be done to save $500 or $1000 per year?
There are many factors that affect the price of gasoline. The most basic, though, is increasing demand. In places like China and India, car ownership is skyrocketing. In the past few years, oil production has little changed, but demand continues to rise. Basic economics tells us that rinsing demand with no change in supply leads to rising prices.
The reality is that I will probably never see $1.65 gas ever again in my lifetime. When you're on a budget, that's a hard reality to face.
When reality raises its ugly head, politicians smell blood. Every politician wishes they could come up with a way to tax us back to $2 gas, or to force Saudi Arabia to open the floodgates and let the oil pour forth, or to drill holes in the Alaskan tundra or the continental shelf to extract our own oil. Something, anything, to reduce the price.
The problem is that some of these "solutions" will only work in the short or medium term, but help us not one whit in the long term.
There is almost nothing the current president, nor the next president, nor the Congress can do to manipulate gas prices.
One idea is to cut the federal gas tax -- a tax holiday. Cutting the federal tax of 18.4 cents per gallon, though, hardly seems worth it. Remember good old supply and demand? Increased demand for something in short supply means higher prices. That 18 cents will disappear in a week, and the deficit will do nothing but grow.
Some members of Congress want to impose windfall profits taxes on oil companies. This is an idea that I can support, but the new money should have a dedicated purpose having nothing to do with gas prices because such a tax will do nothing to lower the price of gas, and could make it go up.
Midwest farmers see the alternative fuels market as a great way to get paid more for their crops. They get more money when their corn is converted to ethanol than if it is sold as food. But if food costs rise as fuel prices go down, have we gained anything? And who's to say more ethanol means lower prices?
Increased domestic supply is also touted as a solution, extracting oil from shale or drilling at ANWR or off shore. But as environmental consciousness rises, more people don't see solutions in exploiting nature this way, they only see folly.
No, the real solutions are all long-term. We are going to have to bite the bullet.
The best solution is to decrease our need for oil. Higher CAFE standards, so that new cars get better mileage, are a start, but only just. What we really need is alternatively fueled vehicles.
We need bio-fuels, especially from non-food sources like switch grass, and they need to power hybrids that can eke out 100 or 200 miles per gallon. We need to develop hydrogen. We need better electric cars. Something. Anything!
What we need is an Apollo project for fuel. We need to invest time, money, and brain power in the problem. There is a solution out there, and I can guarantee you it has nothing to do with petroleum.
One day, there will be a need for the GasMan web site again, but instead of tracking the price of a gallon of gas, it will track the price of a liter of hydrogen or the cost to top off a quick-charge battery. The day cannot come soon enough.
Bite the bullet on gas prices
Back in 1998, I stood at a gas station pumping gas at $1.11 per gallon and noticed that the station next door sold its gas for $1.01. I had a light bulb moment and created The GasMan website to track local gas prices.
Keeping such a thing up to date is a lot harder than it sounds, and five years later I closed the site down. The average price I was posting at the time of the site's demise was $1.65 per gallon. $1.11? $1.65? Those were the days.
Today, you can buy GPS units that provide directions to the closest, cheapest gas. Finding the cheapest gas in the area, though, might save you $70 or $80 per year. Is there anything that can be done to save $500 or $1000 per year?
There are many factors that affect the price of gasoline. The most basic, though, is increasing demand. In places like China and India, car ownership is skyrocketing. In the past few years, oil production has little changed, but demand continues to rise. Basic economics tells us that rinsing demand with no change in supply leads to rising prices.
The reality is that I will probably never see $1.65 gas ever again in my lifetime. When you're on a budget, that's a hard reality to face.
When reality raises its ugly head, politicians smell blood. Every politician wishes they could come up with a way to tax us back to $2 gas, or to force Saudi Arabia to open the floodgates and let the oil pour forth, or to drill holes in the Alaskan tundra or the continental shelf to extract our own oil. Something, anything, to reduce the price.
The problem is that some of these "solutions" will only work in the short or medium term, but help us not one whit in the long term.
There is almost nothing the current president, nor the next president, nor the Congress can do to manipulate gas prices.
One idea is to cut the federal gas tax -- a tax holiday. Cutting the federal tax of 18.4 cents per gallon, though, hardly seems worth it. Remember good old supply and demand? Increased demand for something in short supply means higher prices. That 18 cents will disappear in a week, and the deficit will do nothing but grow.
Some members of Congress want to impose windfall profits taxes on oil companies. This is an idea that I can support, but the new money should have a dedicated purpose having nothing to do with gas prices because such a tax will do nothing to lower the price of gas, and could make it go up.
Midwest farmers see the alternative fuels market as a great way to get paid more for their crops. They get more money when their corn is converted to ethanol than if it is sold as food. But if food costs rise as fuel prices go down, have we gained anything? And who's to say more ethanol means lower prices?
Increased domestic supply is also touted as a solution, extracting oil from shale or drilling at ANWR or off shore. But as environmental consciousness rises, more people don't see solutions in exploiting nature this way, they only see folly.
No, the real solutions are all long-term. We are going to have to bite the bullet.
The best solution is to decrease our need for oil. Higher CAFE standards, so that new cars get better mileage, are a start, but only just. What we really need is alternatively fueled vehicles.
We need bio-fuels, especially from non-food sources like switch grass, and they need to power hybrids that can eke out 100 or 200 miles per gallon. We need to develop hydrogen. We need better electric cars. Something. Anything!
What we need is an Apollo project for fuel. We need to invest time, money, and brain power in the problem. There is a solution out there, and I can guarantee you it has nothing to do with petroleum.
One day, there will be a need for the GasMan web site again, but instead of tracking the price of a gallon of gas, it will track the price of a liter of hydrogen or the cost to top off a quick-charge battery. The day cannot come soon enough.
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